Analysts at Tropical Storm Risks (TSR), an insurance and reinsurance industry supported team of forecasters, are predicting that this year’s Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be about 20% less active than the 30-year norm.
In total, TSR forecasts that the Northwest Pacific region will see 23 tropical storms, 13 typhoons and 7 intense typhoons during 2022.
This lower level of activity is partly attributable to the effects of La Niña, which look set to continue through the summer months and into Autumn.
However, these same La Niña conditions mean that Atlantic Hurricane risk will be heightened this year, with some analysts anticipating 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes this year.
“The TSR early May forecast for Northwest Pacific typhoon activity in 2022 anticipates another season with below-norm activity albeit at levels slightly higher than in 2020 and 2021,” forecasters explained.
On the El Nino Southern Oscillation, they added: “TSR uses the strong link between the annual Northwest Pacific ACE index and August-September-October (ASO) ENSO combined with the increasing expectation that the current La Niña state will persist through ASO 2022.”
While TSR says it is more confident than usual in its predictions for the coming season, any impact on the insurance and reinsurance markets will depend heavily on the direction of travel of any intensifying storms, as well as if, and where, they eventually make landfall.
Major storms in the Northwest Pacific region have the potential to heavily impact re/insurers with exposures in this area, given the extensive coverages in place across Japan, mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
