Analysts at AXA Climate are forecasting an enhanced risk for hurricanes for the 2022 season due to remnants of La Niña that will last into the coming months.
Continued La Niña conditions had not been expected until a few weeks ago, with the NOAA having predicted a 30% chance of an ongoing event last month.
This was based on results from multi-modal ensembles for forecasting and also expert views.
However, AXA Climate notes that a radical change in the forecast occurred in March, forecasting a La Niña event with more than 50 % chance during June-August.
Accordingly, AXA Climate now believes there is an increased risk of a more active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
This view is shared by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science, which recently predicted ‘above-normal’ hurricane risk this year.
AXA Climate assured that its outlook will be revised regularly as forecasts become more reliable with the approaching hurricane season starting in early June.
In particular, a special hurricane forecast from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is likely to be released in mid-April, which will be key in reviewing the predicted enhanced risk of hurricanes for 2022.
As a specialist in climate risk, AXA Climate offers parametric insurance covers to help its clients mitigate climate-related risks.
The firm’s parametric hurricane protection is designed to help businesses immediately recover from the economic losses caused by hurricane events, including direct losses inflicted by property damage and business interruption costs.