Covid-19 will wipe $3 trillion from global trade in 2020 compared with 2019 levels, according to analysis conducted by Russell Group.
Based on shipping and aircraft movements, the risk management company predicts trade to be $7.45 trillion in the first half of 2020 and $8.55 trillion in the remaining six months of 2020.
The estimated total trade for 2020 is predicted to be in the range of $16 trillion, of which $12 trillion in goods value will be shipped and $4 trillion-worth of goods freighted.
In 2019, WTO global goods trade, including merchandise and non-commercial services, totalled $19 trillion.
“COVID-19 has introduced a unhealthy dose of uncertainty into the global economy, impacting every facet of the system from banking to trade,” said Russell Group CEO Suki Basi.
“Yet to truly understand the impact of COVID-19, one needs to examine the ‘transportation layer,’ the foundation of global trade where goods, services and commodities are shipped and freighted from country to country to be produced and consumed,” Basi continued.
“With the publication of these figures today we wanted to highlight to our clients and the wider public that without analysing and understanding this layer, then it is difficult to understand the impact of COVID-19 on world trade.”
