Willis, a WTW business, has released its 2026 Political Risk Survey, highlighting that risks driven by economic policy continue to outweigh those stemming from international conflict, despite the survey being issued as conflict in the Middle East escalated.
According to Willis, respondents selected tariffs over international violent conflict as a top political risk, with 61% believing the impacts of rising tariffs are the most difficult to manage.
61% also reported that their company had experienced a negative financial impact from tariffs.
Sam Wilkin, Director of Political Risk Analytics at Willis, said, “It’s surprising that while conflict in the Middle East dominates the headlines, the effects of tariffs continue to dominate business concerns.
“But this finding is in keeping with other trends portrayed by our survey sample. The political risk map of 2026 is not simply a map of war zones. It is a map of contested systems – trade systems, technology systems, information systems and domestic political systems.
“For globalised business, political risk is becoming less about exposure to a handful of unstable places, and more about exposure to an increasingly unstable world order. This report shines a light on what companies find hardest to manage in this geopolitical landscape that is changing so fundamentally.”
Elsewhere in the report, Willis noted that 39% of surveyed companies believe they face heightened risks as a result of policy decisions taken by their home governments.
Meanwhile, 84% said they are either actively preparing for, or considering preparations for, a future in which the “Eastern” and “Western” segments of the global economy may need to operate as structurally independent systems.
The survey also showed that the proportion of respondents reporting credit and political risk insurance losses linked to geopolitical events was the second highest recorded in the survey’s nine-year history.
“For the third year running, related losses amounted to more than $250 million, and interest in political risk and trade credit insurance as a means of managing geopolitical risk has ticked up,” Willis said.
Economic coercion or retaliation, including official or unofficial sanctions, threats, tariffs and export embargoes on key commodities, was ranked as the leading grey-zone aggression-related concern by 61% of respondents.
Meanwhile, attacks on infrastructure, including the cutting of undersea cables, pipeline sabotage, power station disruption and warehouse arson, remained the top grey-zone aggression-related threat, cited by 65% of firms.
Oxford Analytica carried out the annual Political Risk Survey on behalf of WTW and combined in-depth interviews with a broader survey.
There were reportedly 57 respondents to the survey and 15 participants in the interview panel. The survey sample is said to be representative of globalised businesses across geographic regions, industries, and company size.
