Recently published forecasts for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, from the Colorado State University and Accuweather, suggest a roughly average level of storm activity.
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1st and runs until the end of November, 2019. After two consecutive years of increased catastrophe activity and subsequent losses, including the devastation caused by the three major landfalling hurricanes of 2017, insurers and reinsurers will, as always, be keeping a close eye on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Accuweather is predicting a near-to-slightly-above-normal season, with 12 to 14 storms. Of these, five to seven are expected to become hurricanes, with two to four of these predicted to become major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).
AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert, Dan Kottlowski said: “This year, we think that there will be a few less tropical storms and lower numbers in hurricanes, but again, the old saying is ‘it only takes one’.”
The Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science, predicts a similar season. Its latest forecast notes 13 named storms, of which five will become hurricanes, with two of these being major hurricane events.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” says the Colorado State University.
It’s important to remember that these forecasts shouldn’t be solely relied upon for risk transfer and reinsurance decision-making, but they are a good indicator of conditions.
In 2018, 15 named storms occurred in the Atlantic basin, eight if which were hurricanes and two of which were major hurricane events.
Data shows that the long-term (1950-2017) average for Atlantic storm activity is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The 1981-2010 median average is 12 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes. While the recent (2008-2017) average is 15 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
So, the most recent forecasts from Accuweather and the Colorado State University point to a fairly average 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, but as noted by both and highlighted in 2017 and 2018, it only takes one major landfalling event to drive a substantial loss for insurers and reinsurers.
