Hurricane Dorian has weakened slightly today after spending around 24 hours parked over the Bahamas where it has caused significant devastation.
Reports suggest as many as 13,000 residential properties in the Bahamas have been damaged or completely destroyed, while reports of lives lost are beginning to come in.
The islands face a long recovery and local insurance firms will face a heavy claims toll, which the global reinsurance industry is likely to be called on to support.
Hurricane Dorian has now been downgraded to a strong Category 2 storm (96-110mph), with sustained winds of 110 mph, higher gusts and a minimum central pressure now at 955 mb.
The storm has finally begun moving northwest towards Florida at a speed of about 2mph, after coming to a complete standstill over the Bahamas earlier today.
The latest forecast still shows hurricane Dorian skirting the Florida coastline after making a turn for the north, after which it should also hug the Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina coastlines before an extratropical transition occurs.
Little change in intensity is expected as Dorian approaches Florida over the next day or two, with the storm set to gain latitude and increase in size even as its peak wind speeds gradually decline.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipates that the hurricane will also begin to gain momentum and accelerate over the next 36 hours, followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near the Carolinas.
The U.S. coastline cannot be considered safe yet, as still Dorian could wobble west and come closer to landfall. The distance the eye of the hurricane stays offshore is critical in deciding how severe any coastal impacts are.
In the most recent updates from the NHC, the forecast cone has shifted very slightly further east, putting hurricane Dorian’s eye a little further offshore. However, uncertainty remains relatively high and Dorian could move closer to the coast during its passage north.
Currently hurricane Dorian looks set to make its closest pass to the U.S. coastline in North Carolina early on Friday, where there will be the highest chance of hurricane winds based on the latest forecasts.
But any slight shift further west in the track could bring greater impacts for Florida and states further south.
Even if Dorian continues on its current offshore track, meteorologists are predicting that areas of North and South Carolina could see up to 15 inches of rain, with warnings of life-threatening flash flooding in place across the coastline.
Remarkably, the NHC currently shows Dorian making landfall in Newfoundland, Canada as a weak Category 1 hurricane on Sunday morning, with wind speeds of 65 mph and gusts of up to 92 mph.
Dorian is reported to have caused “unprecedented destruction” across the northern Bahamas islands of Abaco and Grand, according to Prime Minister Hubert Minnis, with the International Red Cross saying that some 13,000 properties may have already been damaged or destroyed by the storm.
The hurricane is the most powerful to have ever made landfall in the Bahamas. Impacts continue on Grand Bahama Island, with catastrophic winds and storm surge, even as Dorian now slowly begins to move away.
The devastation wrought in the Bahamas will not be as impactful to the global insurance and reinsurance market as a US landfall would be, but Dorian looks to have had a staggering impact on lives and communities in the area.
In the US, the states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina have all declared states of emergency, with evacuation orders for millions of people still in effect.
Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis warned residents not to be complacent following the change in the storm’s predicted path, adding: “This storm at this magnitude could really cause massive destruction.”
The National Hurricane Center said in its latest update, “Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter.
“Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian’s center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds.
“The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
“The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week.”
The Center also warned of heavy rains capable of producing life-threatening flash floods for sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the US into Friday.
