Typhoon Jebi, which hit Japan earlier this month, is expected to inflict between $3 billion and $5.5 billion (¥340 to ¥620 billion) in insured losses, according to the latest estimate from catastrophe risk modeller RMS.
Approximately 80% of the loss is said to have come from the Kansai region, where Jebi made a second landfall west of Kobe, impacting the Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe conurbation.
The RMS estimate includes typhoon coastal flooding – observed in Kansai International Airport, in the ports of Kobe and Osaka, and in localised areas of reclaimed land/barrier islands in Osaka Bay. Typhoon driven inland flooding is deemed to be negligible from this event.
Marine cargo losses are included in the estimate, from the Kobe and Osaka ports – primarily from typhoon driven coastal flooding.
The estimate also accounts for the wind footprint affecting large parts of Japan; including in northern Honshu and in Hokkaido where, when tracking offshore, the typhoon impacted these areas while undergoing extratropical transitioning.
RMS’s insured loss estimate is slightly higher catastrophe risk modeller AIR Worldwide’s, which put insured losses at between ¥257 billion (US $2.3 billion) and ¥502 billion ($4.5 billion).
To develop and enhance its industry loss estimates, RMS says it participated in remote and in-person reconnaissance; conducted by risk modelers from the RMS office in Tokyo.
Post Loss Amplification is not anticipated to be a significant factor for Typhoon Jebi. The estimate excludes losses from damage to infrastructure and port facilities.
Marine hull is not included, neither are claims adjustment expenses, nor some aspects of business interruption including Contingent Business Interruption.
“2018 continues to be an eventful year for natural catastrophes in Japan, both for earthquakes and typhoons,” said Yasunori Araga, President, RMS Japan.
“The RMS Japan Typhoon High Definition model has been used for this assessment, as has the Japan Earthquake High Definition model in recent months.”
“The investment from RMS into the technology and science for the Japan models reflects the determination to allow all our clients the best view of risk in Japan; which, as recent events show, is of vital importance.”