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RMS upgrades weather & terror models to high def

20th May 2022 - Author: Matt Sheehan

RMS, the Moody’s-owned risk modelling and solutions company, has announced it will release four new high definition risk models, including for Europe Windstorm, North America Winterstorm (WT), North America Severe Convective Storm (SCS), and Terrorism.

RMS logoThe HD probabilistic models incorporate a high-fidelity, simulation-based framework for modelling event frequency and severity, which should improve the quality of catastrophe risk quantification, RMS explained.

The framework allows for event footprints to be represented more realistically across larger event sets.

“The RMS High Definition Models are delivering a step-change in risk analysis across the insurance industry. All the technological capabilities within the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ support the RMS HD model enhancements for clients,” said Julie Serakos, Senior Vice President, Model Production Management, RMS.

“These model announcements build on Moody’s continued commitment to bringing reliable and precise analytics to the modelers, underwriters, the C-suite, and across the industry,” Serakos added.

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“RMS has always invested in leading science and technology to ensure that clients have some of the best information available to help them with their risk decisions.”

The new RMS Europe Windstorm HD Model will cover 17 countries, adding Finland and Lichtenstein, and includes a climate variability view and expanded storm surge analytics to include the UK, Ireland, France, and Belgium.

Storm clustering will be modelled natively within the HD framework, together with an option to run the model without clustering, and industrial facilities, builders’ risk, and marine cargo will also all be covered.

Both the RMS North America Winterstorm and RMS North America SCS HD Models utilise a simulation-based framework to better represents the time-dependent nature of SCS/WT event frequency and hazard.

This includes event clustering, seasonality, and the representation of cumulative hazard such as multi-day SCS outbreaks, or the cumulative snow buildup on a building due to multiple snowfalls.

And finally, the new RMS Terrorism HD Model offers increased transparency in exceedance probability (EP) generation, with outputs and analysis processes consistent with other RMS HD models.

Workflow improvements include expanded financial model capabilities, multi-region selections, property and workers compensation in a single analysis, and introduces selectable causes of loss: conventional, fire only, or chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN).

The planned general availability for the RMS Terrorism HD Model will be in 2022, Europe Windstorm HD Model in 2023, and North America Winterstorm and North America Severe Convective Storm in 2024.

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