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Storm Ciara insured loss estimated at up to €1.8bn by RMS

14th February 2020 - Author: Luke Gallin

Catastrophe risk modeller RMS has estimated that the insurance industry loss from windstorm Ciara, also known as windstorm Sabine, will likely range between €1.1 billion (USD 1.2 billion) and €1.8 billion (USD 1.95 billion).

Thunderstorm imageThe RMS loss estimate for storm Ciara, which struck parts of Ireland and the UK on Sunday February 9th before moving on to Europe and impacting numerous regions across the continent, comes soon after AIR Worldwide’s insured loss range of €1.1 billion to €1.9 billion.

RMS expects that the losses in Germany will account for around 50% of the total insured loss from the event, and adds that it does not anticipate any post-event loss amplification while business interruption losses will likely be low.

The cat risk modeller states that its loss estimate for the storm is based on a hazard reconstruction using version 15.0 of its Europe Windstorm Models, and includes damage to property, auto, forestry, agriculture, and direct business interruption, but excludes losses from damage to infrastructure.

While RMS does not specify if the insured loss estimate includes flooding, the fact the estimate is based on the RMS Europe Windstorm Models suggests that the €1.1 billion to €1.8 billion range excludes flooding.

Michèle Lai, Product Manager for Europe Climate Models at RMS, commented: “Windstorm Ciara is very likely to be the first billion-Euro windstorm of this season. This event exhibited characteristics typical of European windstorms, with low gusty winds causing widespread damage across several countries, and is most comparable to Windstorm Emma in 2008.

“Our loss range represents the current uncertainty in the event loss, which is primarily driven by prolonged, squally gusts that locally affected several regions across the continent.”

The arrival of storm Ciara marked the third named storm of the year designated by the UK Met Office. And, another severe storm is en route to northern Europe this weekend, so re/insurers in the region will likely be keeping a close eye on how this storm develops.

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