Velocity Risk Underwriters has partnered with Louisiana State University (LSU) to develop the “Velocity Risk LSU Gulf Hurricane Outlook” model, the first of its kind to use daily data to predict US hurricane seasonal activity.
The model utilises comprehensive daily data, aggregated into whole-season forecasts, and employs a sophisticated Random Forest machine learning algorithm. This approach allows the team to make daily predictions and produce accurate seasonal forecasts.
The model forecasts 12 systems in the Gulf of Mexico for the 2024 U.S. hurricane season. The annual release of this new model will provide valuable insights for the Gulf Coast, enhancing Velocity Risk’s portfolio construction and risk management strategies.
As the only daily Gulf Coast-centric hurricane model, the Velocity Risk LSU Gulf Hurricane Outlook is poised to set a new standard in the field.
This joint venture highlights Velocity Risk’s commitment to becoming a thought leader in hurricane and weather-related catastrophe research and risk management within the E&S space.
The Velocity Risk LSU Gulf Hurricane Outlook was inspired by Dr. Paul Miller, Assistant Professor in the Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences at LSU, and his original Gulf Coast model.
Dr. Miller commented, “Our model is specifically designed to address the unique challenges of the Gulf Coast region. By focusing on this area, we can provide more accurate and reliable forecasts, ultimately helping to protect lives and property.”
Henry Lipscomb, Analytics Manager at Velocity Risk, added, “This collaboration with LSU marks a significant milestone in our efforts to enhance hurricane forecasting and risk management. We are excited to be at the forefront of this innovation and look forward to the positive impact it will have on the industry.”
Jonathan Russell, Velocity Risk Intern and LSU student, remarked, “Partnering with Velocity Risk has allowed me to apply academic research in a practical, and impactful way. The Velocity Risk LSU Gulf Hurricane Outlook is a testament to the power of combining academic rigour with industry expertise.”
