Despite anticipating slowly decelerating rate increases throughout 2023, analysts at KBW expect catastrophe-exposed property lines’ rate increases to re-accelerate in response to elevated claim cost inflation and rising property reinsurance costs.
KBW’s MarketScout February commercial insurance rate barometer rose by 5.0% y/y, accelerating from January’s 4.4%.
The analysts note that despite rate increases appearing to have peaked in December 2020, they expect persistent rate increases throughout 2023 with increases lasting longer than past hardening cycles.
Most casualty lines’ expected returns have improved, while rising property reinsurance costs and heightened risk awareness point to re-accelerating property rate increases, especially for catastrophe-exposed risks.
KBW states that the majority of commercial (re)insurers’ core underwriting margins should expand modestly in 2023 as they earn past and current written rate increases, notwithstanding the more conservative reserving that it notes is typical of hard markets.
The analysts write, “We expect commercial lines’ rate increases to generally persist throughout 2023, with broadly slow deceleration for most lines (catastrophe-exposed property is the most prominent exception) as rate levels approach adequacy following several years of (still-) compounding rate increases.
“We expect rate increases to broadly benefit both the commercial (re)insurers and — to a lesser extent — the brokers.”
KBW recommends insurers American Financial Group (AFG), AIG, Chubb, The Hartford Financial Services, RLI, and W. R. Berkley Corporation, and Bermudians Arch Capital Group, Everest RE Group, and RenaissanceRe Holdings, for which it mostly expects improving accident and calendar year core underwriting margins and overall earnings growth in 2023.
The firm also recommends insurance brokers Brown & Brown, BRP, Goosehead Insurance, Ryan Specialty Group, and WTW, reflecting their expected solid 2023 organic growth.
