Reinsurance News

KatRisk estimates Hurricane Ian losses to fall between $29.9bn and $62.1bn

3rd October 2022 - Author: Pete Carvill

Risk-modelling firm KatRisk has estimated that the combined costs from Hurricane Ian, which has battered Florida in the last week, should fall between $29.9bn and $62.1bn.

The firm said in a presentation that it estimates economic losses from storm surge to reach somewhere between $10.7bn and $24.9bn, with inland flood losses falling between $2.8bn and $6bn.

The largest losses, said KatRisk, arise from tropical cylone winds, which it estimates will land somewhere between $10.3bn and $37.9bn in total. KatRisk noted in its assessment that its economic exposure does not include autos or infrastructure.

The firm is the risk modeller for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) run by FEMA. The high figures it has put out in this statement suggest that the NFIP reinsurance could attach and pay out at least some of its lower layers.

Other estimates put out in recent days include that of Verisk, which says Hurricane Ian could drive a $57bn insured loss. A poll run by Reinsurance News has suggested that the hit to the re/insurance industry will go over $50bn.

Stratumn, by SIA Partners

More than 1,050 people from across the insurance and reinsurance sector responded to the poll.

Of this, 33% said that they expect the re/insured loss from hurricane Ian’s wind, surge, and flooding (excluding NFIP) impacts to exceed the $50bn mark, which would make it one of the costliest catastrophe loss events ever for insurers and reinsurers.

The Hurricane Ian industry loss range of $40bn to $50bn received 23% of the votes. Interestingly, the even lower industry loss range of $30bn to $40bn received 30% of the votes, which is surprising given recent loss estimates from modellers and analysts. The lowest range of our poll, up to $30bn, received just 14% of votes.

Other estimates have put the losses (according to JP Morgan) at $25bn, $40bn (according to Fitch), and up to (according to KCC) $63bn. Previous analysis by GlobalData did not give an estimated figure, but said that incurred losses in US fire and natural hazards may hit ‘near-record levels’ due to Hurricane Ian.

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