Howden Re Japan CEO Kentaro Tada suggested that while the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck Kumamoto Prefecture on 28 July was destructive, with early reports indicating dozens of fatalities, hundreds of injuries, and localised structural damage, insured losses are likely to remain well below those from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and be more comparable to the 2024 Noto earthquake, unless the ongoing aftershock sequence reveals more extensive damage.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the earthquake measured magnitude 7.1 at a shallow depth of approximately 10 km, with shaking reaching the maximum intensity of Shindo 7 in parts of Kyushu. Authorities have warned that the risk of strong aftershocks remains elevated.
Meanwhile, as Kumamoto is a major semiconductor manufacturing hub, several facilities operated by or linked to TSMC/JASM, Sony, Tokyo Electron and other suppliers temporarily suspended operations to conduct safety inspections.
Myrto Papaspiliou, Head of International Catastrophe Model Research, Howden Re, commented, “This event follows a similar magnitude and depth to the 2016 Kumamoto sequence, which culminated in a Mw 7.0 mainshock two days after an initial foreshock, and produced comparably severe local shaking, though across a slightly different footprint.
“Researchers Ross Stein and Shinji Toda had already flagged elevated stress on fault segments south of that rupture, so this event may have been promoted by it.
“While Japan is one of the world’s most seismically active countries, this part of Kyushu is not associated with its largest subduction-zone earthquake sources.
“The causative fault looks likely to be the southern Hinagu/Yatsushiro system, which geological evidence suggests may not have seen a major surface-rupturing earthquake for centuries, potentially several millennia.”
Kentaro Tada, CEO, Howden Re Japan, said, “Our focus right now is on those affected across Kyushu. Reported damage to Kumamoto’s semiconductor infrastructure appears limited so far, though restart timelines will determine the scale of business interruption losses.
“It’s too early for formal estimates, but we’d expect insured losses to remain well below the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and closer to the 2024 Noto earthquake, unless the aftershock sequence reveals more extensive damage.”
