The forecast path for hurricane Ian, which is now a major Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, has shifted south overnight, with a landfall now expected to be somewhere between Fort Myers and Sarasota.
Some two million Floridians have been told to evacuate the state as hurricane Ian heads towards the south coast as an extremely strong and dangerous storm.
Currently, hurricane force winds extend outwards up to 40 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 175 miles.
Hurricane Ian hit Cuba yesterday with winds of up to 125 mph, damaging the country’s electricity grid which caused a blackout for the entire island. It’s been reported in the mainstream media that two people have lost their lives, so far, and buildings and infrastructure has been damaged nationwide.
With the storm now bearing down on Florida, forecasters show that hurricane Ian is growing in size and hurricane force winds are likely to extend further out as the eye of the storm widens. On current projections, the Port Charlotte area sits around the centre of NOAA’s forecast cone.
In an earlier update, the NHC warned that, “air force hurricane hunters find Ian has strengthened into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane,” adding that it’s “expected to cause life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic winds and flooding in the Florida Peninsula.”
At 6:35 am local time, the NHC said that Ian is rapidly intensifying with conditions rapidly deteriorating along the southwest Florida coast. Adding that the most recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph.
Category 5 status requires sustained winds of at least 157 mph, so hurricane Ian is currently an extremely strong and dangerous Cat 4 storm.
See below for the latest forecast cone from the NHC:
The latest from research scientist, Tomer Burg, shows that hurricane Ian was expected to strengthen to a Category 4 storm as it approached the coastline, but the windspeed has now been raised, with landfall winds now forecasted to remain at a huge 155 mph just north of the Fort Myers region.
According to reports, storm surge flooding is already occurring in the Lower Florida Keys, and with the storm surge set to raise higher as the storm gets closer, it’s going to be a dangerous 24 hours+ for the state’s coastline.
It’s also still expected that major hurricane Ian will slow as it nears the Florida Peninsula’s coastline, with further growth in size of the storm also anticipated. Given the low-lying properties along Florida’s west coast, a slow and larger hurricane Ian has the potential to exacerbate the storm surge flooding.
Below is the latest peak storm surge graphic from the NHC. This shows a surge of up to 18 foot as possible and widely above 6 foot on the central west coast.
Of course, there’s still a lot of uncertainty as hurricane Ian nears its second landfall, and this is reflected in the industry loss ranges, which suggest anything from $10 billion to $40 billion.
According to catastrophe risk modeller Karen Clark & Company (KCC), a landfall near Longboat Key would result in a $30 billion loss for the industry from wind, with a further $2.5 billion from flooding as Ian tracked inland.
A second loss scenario reported by KCC suggests a landfall more to the south, near the Venice area, would drive industry losses of $17 billion from wind damage and an additional $2 billion from flood.
It’s worth noting that the latest forecast path is now south of both of these KCC scenarios, but it’s possible that this could actually result in higher loss estimates if the Fort Myers region suffers a more direct hit from hurricane Ian’s strongest winds.
As we reported yesterday, re/insurance broker BMS’s Senior Meteorologist, Andrew Siffert, suggested that a $10 billion plus industry loss is now almost assured.
While a lot can happen as the storm continues its path towards Florida, it appears that hurricane Ian is going to be a significant loss for the insurance and reinsurance market, with some of the large, nationwide carriers having some of the most cat exposure to the event.
