Independent professional services consultancy Barnett Waddingham (BW) has released findings from its 2026 survey of all 11 active bulk annuity insurers, indicating that although buyout volumes have reached new highs, the overall pipeline of schemes awaiting completion continues to expand.
Barnett Waddingham reports that close to 160 defined benefit (DB) pension schemes completed the transition from buy-in to buyout in 2025, marking an increase of around 30% compared with 2024.
Based on insurer projections referenced by Barnett Waddingham, this figure could rise to approximately 300 in 2026. However, with buy-in activity expected to exceed 400 transactions over the same period, Barnett Waddingham indicates that the number of schemes yet to complete is likely to grow beyond 800.
The data published by Barnett Waddingham shows that many schemes continue to experience extended timelines when moving from buy-in to buyout. Of schemes that transacted in 2021, only just over half have reached buyout, meaning a substantial proportion have remained in transition for at least four years.
Barnett Waddingham also finds that around half of schemes transacting in 2022 have completed within a three-year period. This timeframe is increasingly viewed as a benchmark across the market and aligns with modelling referenced by The Pensions Regulator.
For more recent transactions, completion rates are notably lower. Barnett Waddingham reports that 28% of schemes transacting in 2023 have reached buyout so far, with the figure declining to 9% for 2024 transactions.
Despite the broader trend of longer timelines, Barnett Waddingham highlights evidence that faster progression is achievable. Its findings show that nearly 20% of schemes completing buy-ins in 2023 and 2024 have already reached buyout within one to two years, reflecting the impact of strong preparation, particularly in relation to data quality and benefit readiness.
Barnett Waddingham notes similar patterns within its own client portfolio. Approximately a quarter of schemes it manages from the 2023–2024 cohort have already completed buyout. For earlier transactions, Barnett Waddingham reports that all schemes it advised that transacted in 2021 have reached buyout, compared with 54% across the wider market.
Beth Allison, Head of Post-Transaction and Wind-Up, Barnett Waddingham, commented: “Our survey highlights that while well-prepared schemes can reach buyout in under two years, it is becoming increasingly common for schemes to take three to four years from buy-in to buy‑out. This experience will likely persist for the foreseeable future, as reflected in the projected growth of the buyout queue over 2026.
“Although insurer capacity continues to expand and more schemes are addressing major data challenges such as GMP equalisation before transacting, these changes will take time to feed through the pipeline. They may also be offset by an increasing number of smaller schemes that are expected to buy-in over the coming years, each requiring a similar level of fixed resource.
“One thing remains clear, schemes that progress fastest are those that are well‑prepared, with a robust data and benefit cleansing plan and disciplined project management. In a market where competition for capacity is intensifying, expert support is critical to maintaining momentum and achieving a smooth and timely path to buyout and wind‑up.”
