Insured losses from severe convective storms (SCS) are projected to be below average in 2026, according to catastrophe modelling firm KCC’s latest US SCS Bulletin.
The updated outlook is based on losses in the first six months of the year. Historically, accumulated losses generated through the end of June account for more than 75% of the total annual insured SCS losses.
While the first half of the year recorded several multi-million dollar storm events, a prolonged atmospheric pattern during peak spring months kept total losses low.
The primary driver behind the reduced loss volume was a persistent high-pressure system positioned over the Southeast during May.
During the spring, the jet stream—a significant driver of storm activity—is often in a southerly position, producing storms in the Southeast and Texas, where higher losses typically occur, analysts explained.
In May 2026, however, the persistent high-pressure ridge blocked these typical storm tracks for much of the month, bringing warm, dry weather, and sinking air, which suppressed severe storm formation.
While this weather pattern prolonged drought conditions in this region and led to above-average wildfire activity, almost no severe storms took place in the area for the entire month, pushing most SCS impacts to the Central Plains.
Preliminary estimates from Aon support KCC’s outlook, indicating that combined economic and insured losses from SCS outbreaks are likely to land in the low single-digit billions USD.
SCS activity was recorded between June 18 and 25, 2026, impacting the Gulf Coast, Central US, High Plains and Midwest, involving 14 tornadoes and a long-track derecho.
Altogether, the event caused widespread damage across residential, commercial and infrastructure sectors and at least three fatalities, according to Aon data.
