A new report from global insurance and reinsurance broker Aon shows that medical claims in 2020 are estimated to increase at a rate of 5 percentage points lower than initially estimated by US insurers due to COVID-19.
The survey also predicts that the pandemic will increase US employer medical claims by an additional 2 percentage points on average above normal trends in 2021.
This will include costs for care that was postponed or skipped in 2020 as well as COVID-19 prevention and treatment that will be delivered next year.
Based on Aon’s carrier survey, if an employer initially budgeted $10,000 per employee on medical costs in 2020, prior to COVID-19, then it is expected that employers would see claim reductions averaging $500 per employee due to COVID-19 net impacts.
However, the broker notes that there will be a variation in the impact between medical plan sponsors, which will be driven by a number of factors which include demographics, industry and geography.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, half of Americans receive health insurance coverage through an employer.
The COVID-19 impacts for 2020 dental and vision benefit claims will also decrease budgeted costs further, Aon concluded, with carriers currently expecting average downward cost impacts of 15% for dental benefits and 8% for vision.
Tim Nimmer, Aon’s chief global actuary for health solutions, said: “During 2020 plan year, we believe most self-funded employers will spend less money than what they have budgeted per employee.
“This is an historic occurrence for the U.S. healthcare industry, but there is still uncertainty regarding COVID-19’s impact on deferred treatments and long-term health care,” Nimmer continued. “While employers navigate through different outbreak phases, our current expectation is that medical plan utilisation will continue to normalise during 2021.”
