Global insured losses from natural catastrophe events totalled $46 billion in the first half of 2025, down on last year’s $84 billion and 28% below the 10-year average of $64 billion, according to reinsurance broker Gallagher Re’s H1 2026 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report.
At $46 billion, H1 2026 losses from nat cat events is the lowest total since 2018. Interestingly, the broker finds that the first half of this year marked the fifth consecutive quarter without a single insured cat loss exceeding $10 billion.
In fact, in H1 2026, just 11 events produced insured losses of more than $1 billion, compared with a 10-year average of 16. In total, there were 30 billion-dollar economic loss events globally, compared with a 10-year average of 33.
Some $26 billion, or 57% of the insured cat loss total for the period is attributed to severe convective storms, which Gallagher Re says remains the costliest peril in North America.
Economic losses also fell in the first half of the year to $142 billion, which is 10% below the 10-year average.
While the below-average figures reflect a continuation of the benign loss activity for insurers and reinsurers, Gallagher Re notes the continuing evolution of global risk, highlighted by unprecedented early summer heat in Europe, and the emergence of El Niño conditions during June.
Gallagher Re points to the fact forecasters have assigned a 97.4% probability that 2026 will finish among the five warmest years ever recorded, as multiple countries in Europe recorded all-time temperature records during a prolonged heatwave.
Of course, El Niño is generally associated with reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, but as per Gallagher Re, “the phenomenon shifts risk rather than removing it entirely,” and history shows that extremely dangerous and damaging storms are possible during in El Niño years.
Steve Bowen, Chief Science Officer at Gallagher Re, commented: “While the headline loss figures generate most attention, we are continuing to observe meaningful weather signals and shifts in longer-term climate patterns that are bringing greater impact to the world. The emergence of what could be one of the stronger El Niño phases of ENSO in the modern record may not bring record-breaking losses, but the societal implications are considerable. The compounding nature of a strong El Niño in conjunction with ongoing atmospheric and oceanic warming will only further influence how risk develops across different regions of the world.
“The record-breaking heat observed in parts of Europe during May and June this year is another reminder that weather extremes can cause great humanitarian risk and impact without causing widespread physical damage. The insurance industry’s property sector continues to pay closer attention to how heat-related claims can drive physical damage through degradation of structural foundations, but also additional stresses linked to commercial business interruption.
“At the same time, the arrival of El Niño may signify a reduced frequency of Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026, but it does not eliminate the potential for landfall. This phenomenon should instead reinforce the need to look beyond seasonal storm counts and focus on how risk may shift geographically. For insurers, reinsurers, businesses, and governments alike, resilience depends on understanding not only how much risk exists, but where risk profiles may be evolving.”
