An updated 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast recently released by Colorado State University (CSU) envisions a “near-average” level of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin between June and November.
Source: NOAA
Led by Phil Klotzbach, PhD, a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the CSU forecast team released its initial 2023 seasonal outlook on April 13.
The updated forecast is now anticipating 14 additional named storms rather than 13, as well as seven hurricanes instead of six, and three major hurricanes as opposed to two.
Major hurricanes are categorised as being cyclones with wind speeds that reach up to Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
A standard hurricane season tends to witness 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1 and continues through November 30.
“With the updated forecast released today, all signs point to a hurricane season that will impact the continental U.S.,” commented Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I.
“Residents who live in coastal states from Maine to Texas are vulnerable to the direct impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms. All it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family so now is the time to prepare.”
Moreover, on May 11, the National Hurricane Center indicated an unnamed subtropical storm formed in the Atlantic in mid-January 2023. However, that system will count as this year’s first storm.
Last year two hurricanes made continental US landfalls, including Category 4 Hurricane Ian, which struck Florida’s southwest Gulf Coast in Lee County on September 28 with 150 miles per hour (mph) sustained winds. On September 30, Ian made a second landfall as a Category 1 with 80 mph winds in South Carolina.
Additionally, Florida was also struck by Category 1 Hurricane Nicole along the state’s Atlantic Coast on November 10, a rare November landfalling hurricane that made landfall near Vero Beach with winds reaching up to 75 mph.
Elsewhere, Hurricane Fiona struck Puerto Rico as a Category 1 on September 18.
Kevelighan, added: “Homeowners and business owners should review their policies with an insurance professional to make sure they have the right types, and amounts, of insurance to protect their properties from damage caused by either wind or water. That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage since flood-caused damage is not covered under standard homeowners, condo, renters, or business insurance policies. In addition, homeowners should take steps to make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system.”
CSU’s updated forecast heavily indicates that there is a 43% chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the continental US this year, which includes a 21% chance for the US East Coast, including the state of Florida, and a 27% chance of a major hurricane making landfall between the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas.
“While we anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic have continued to anomalously warm to near-record levels,” Klotzbach said.
“El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”
