TD Cowen, an investment bank and research firm, has issued a report titled, Our Thoughts on the E&S Market, reviewing recent developments in the excess and surplus (E&S) insurance sector.
In its analysis, TD Cowen states that the recent easing in E&S growth has been mainly linked to softer pricing conditions, most notably within property insurance. Even so, TD Cowen observes that E&S filings across California, Florida and Texas rose by 16% year on year in May 2026, which remains broadly consistent with a relatively strong underlying trajectory.
According to TD Cowen, while the E&S market is experiencing heightened competition and falling rates in certain areas, particularly property, there is no clear evidence at this stage that a significant volume of business is returning to the admitted insurance market.
The firm continues to anticipate that the E&S segment will expand over the medium term, though at a more moderate pace than in previous cycles, and expects near-term performance to stay subdued until pricing pressure begins to ease.
In its section titled, May 2026 E&S Premiums, TD Cowen refers to preliminary figures from the largest E&S stamping office states, namely California, Florida and Texas, which together account for close to two-thirds of total E&S premium volume.
TD Cowen reports that combined premiums in these three states declined by (6)% year on year in May 2026. This reflected a +5% increase in California being more than offset by declines of (11)% in both Florida and Texas.
The company notes that this represents an improvement from the (10)% year on year fall recorded in April 2026, although it still aligns with a broader pattern of slowing growth in the sector. The three-month rolling average has, according to TD Cowen, shifted to a (1)% decline, reinforcing the view that recent momentum has softened compared with earlier periods.
