The US property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry is improving, driven by favourable underwriting conditions as key economic driver stabilise and claims-cost pressures begging to ease, according a new report by Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman.
The report finds that major insurance lines are projected to see stronger underwriting performance through 2028, outpacing the growth of the broader US economy despite looming geopolitical risks and sever weather events.
Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at the Triple-I, said: “Our latest economic forecasts for the P/C industry have improved since earlier this year.
“P&C underlying growth, a key economic driver of existing and new business premium volume growth, is expected to outpace overall US GDP growth through 2028. Even with that momentum, we continue to see significant risks to P&C economic drivers especially in the rest of 2026, including but not limited to inflationary pressures caused by the Persian Gulf conflict.”
According to Triple-I’s current forecast, these geopolitical tensions will ease during the second half of the year, though uncertainty remains high.
Performance varies significantly across different insurance lines. Personal lines experienced strong underwriting results int he first quarter of 2026, a trend expected to continue through the end of the year.
However, homeowners insurance results face higher uncertainty due to elevated catastrophe risks. For commercial lines, property-related coverages fared well in Q1. Loss ratios for liability-exposed lines such as general liability and commercial auto remain elevated.
Workers’ compensation remains well positioned, benefiting from stable employment and wage trends that contribute to favourable underwriting conditions.
“Underwriting performance continues to strengthen across much of the P/C industry,” said Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., chief insurance officer at Triple-I. “That said, each line responds differently to economic conditions, persistent claims drivers such as legal system abuse, and changing exposures, making disciplined underwriting and risk-based pricing essential to long-term market stability.”
“General liability and commercial auto continue to present the greatest underwriting challenges, reflecting persistent loss-cost pressures that weigh on underwriting performance despite broader improvement across the P/C industry,” said Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman. “We see elevated loss ratios for these lines continuing based on Q1 results.”
Workers’ compensation remains highly resilient and well-positioned, the report revealed, as it continues to deliver favourable underwriting results, benefiting from stable employment, steady wage growth and favourable loss trends.
Stephen Cooper, practice leader and senior economist at NCCI, highlighted three trends NCCI is closely monitoring.
“Overall, improving employment and contained medical inflation are positive signals for workers’ compensation,” said Cooper. “Rising interest rates and potential frequency pressures are areas to watch.”
