Global credit rating agency AM Best is maintaining its stable outlook on Guatemala’s insurance industry, citing market expansion supported by economic growth and controlled inflation.
The industry has shown consistent premium growth over the past five years, with technical outcomes benefiting from careful expense controls and refined pricing strategies.
According to the latest report, “Market Segment Outlook: Guatemala Insurance,” the country’s GDP growth is anticipated to moderate in 2026, though it will continue to be driven by private consumption and remittance inflows.
Additionally, while inflation is projected to tick upward, it is expected to remain below the 3 – 5% target range set by the Bank of Guatemala.
However, this outlook is accompanied by increased uncertainty. External pressures, including global trade tensions, the Middle East conflict, and more restrictive US immigration policies, could hinder exports and reduce the influx of remittances.
“Guatemala’s insurance industry in 2025 maintained premium sufficiency, showing stability in claims and acquisition costs, demonstrating the market’s ability to navigate the different cycles in reinsurance,” said Inger Rodriguez, financial analyst, AM Best. “The industry remains well protected through comprehensive reinsurance programs placed among reinsurers with high levels of security.”
The report notes that AM Best expects the Guatemalan insurance market to continue growing within the 8-10% range in 2026, with risk-adjusted capitalization of rated entities standing at the strongest level.
It also revealed that market competition in the country remains high, with the top three insurers holding nearly 50% of gross premiums.
Investment performance remains positive but limited by the conservative nature of the market portfolios, characterized by prudent asset-liability management and short tenor.
Additionally rated insurance companies exceed enterprise risk management standards via IFRS 17 and Solvency II, driven by parent groups in adopting nations.
Continued soft-market conditions are being fuelled by a period of minimal catastrophe-related claims and heightened engagement from international reinsurance players.
However, the agency warns that the emerging influence of El Niño on agricultural production and flood prone areas remains a critical factor for observation through the second half of 2026.
