The current insured losses for property and casualty (P&C) re/insurers as a result of the Camp and Woolsey fires in Northern California’s Butte County and Southern California’s Ventura County, respectively, have been estimated by Moody’s to stand at between $10 billion and $15 billion.
On November 25, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) announced that the Camp fire was 100% contained, while the Woolsey fire was fully contained on 21 November.
Since then, both catastrophe modellers and industry analysts alike have been attempting to accurately calculate the insured and uninsured impact accurately.
RMS’ latest estimates put the wildfires’ insured losses at $9-$13 billion, including property and auto damage, business interruption, additional living expenses and contents loss.
Meanwhile, Corelogic this week said the scope of economic damage on residential and commercial properties stood at between $15 billion and $19 billion.
In it’s latest calculations Moody’s states that, if CAL FIRE’s estimate of 18,793 structures destroyed by the Camp fire and 1,500 structures destroyed by the Woolsey fire is correct then, considering a statewide average wildfire loss value of $981,000 per structure, losses could be around $19.9 billion.
However, Moody’s says the average claim size for the Camp fire (the most destructive fire) will likely be lower than statewide averages because home values in the affected area are relatively low, while the average claim size for the Woolsey fire will likely be significantly higher than the statewide average.
Interestingly, Buildfax, a provider of property condition and history insights, yesterday stated that carriers may not have accounted for a recent increase in levels of property maintenance and construction activity across Butte County in their damage assessments for California’s Camp Wildfire.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have suggested that the property and casualty (P&C) re/insurance market could respond by raising prices and reducing its risk appetite.
